About Those Taka & Joule Skin Boxes

Let’s discuss those chests that SEMC has been promoting: the “Wu Xing Flame Box” and the “Bear Beatdown Box.” These have been bugging me for a while, because I feel like they’re a bad deal, and since I woke up at 4 am today and was bored, I decided to figure out exactly how bad a deal they actually are.

Let’s start with the simpler one:

In this deal, you have a 2% chance of unlocking Taka’s Wu Xing Flame skin each time you press that button, which costs 99 ICE. SEMC has implemented “bad luck prevention,” which means that on draw number 50, you get the skin if you haven’t before then. So, if you have “bad luck,” you will end up paying 4950 ICE for that skin. What are your chances of it costing you that much?

For an item with drop rate x, the probability of getting the item over y draws is

1 - (( 1-x )^y)

So, for Wu Xing Flame Taka, your chance of getting Taka BEFORE the 50th draw is

1-(1-.02)^{49}) = 62.84\%

That means that you have a BETTER THAN 1:3 CHANCE OF PAYING 4950 ICE FOR THIS SKIN.

Okay, what if you decide to limit your spending to 2499 ICE, which is the price of the costliest skin you can buy for ICE in the market? What are your chances of getting the Taka skin you want? Well, for 2475 ICE you get 25 draws from the chest:

1-(1-.02)^{25}) = 39.65\%

So you only have a 2:5 chance of getting Wu Xing Flame Taka even though you spent enough to buy a legendary skin.

Okay, on to the Joule box:

This one has two skins in it, again with very low drop rates and “bad luck prevention,” but the rates and limits differ: Teddy Bear Joule has a 2% drop rate with a limit of 50 pulls, while Panda Joule has a 1% drop rate with a limit of 100 pulls. Let’s do the same calculations as for Taka for both of these skins:

For Teddy Bear Joule, your chance of getting her before the 50th draw is the same as for Wu Xing Flame Taka:

1-(1-.02)^{49}) = 62.84\%

Again, that means that you have a better than 1:3 chance of paying 4950 ICE for the skin and only a 2:5 chance of getting the skin if you limit yourself to spending less than the cost of a normal legendary skin.

How about Panda Joule? Changing our formula to reflect the lower drop rate and higher number of pulls, we get

1-(1-.01)^{99}) = 63.03\%

Doesn’t look significantly worse, right? Until you realize that you have a BETTER THAN 1:3 CHANCE OF PAYING 9900 ICE FOR PANDA JOULE!

What are your chances of getting Panda Joule if you limit yourself to those 25 pulls?

1-(1-.01)^{25}) = 22.22\%

That’s barely a 1:5 chance of getting Panda Joule by the time you’ve spent enough to get a normal legendary skin.

So, the bottom line is that you’re likely to pay WAY TOO MUCH for these skins. If you’re okay with that, go for it – just remember the Gambler’s Fallacy as you’re pressing that button …


We should have our countries all be like Belgium.

Ban all them loot boxes!


Correct me if I’m screwing the math (or common sense), but if there’s around 40% chance of getting the Taka skin with 25 pulls, does that mean 60% of people are likely to overspend trying to get it?

I’m not confident enough in my statistics knowledge to give a definitive answer to that. Lol … it sounds like it should be true …

What is the point of gambling or loot boxes if you not making your profit high as a seller and make the customer feel the same a high profit good deal , but at the end the seller going to get the money while you end up blaming your luck hehehehe , I would say 60% is low it should be higher , if loot boxes not working as intended semc would get rid of them directly .

I Really wanted to discuss the bad luck prevention before but I forgot , now the bad luck prevention is a direct control on what you get after a certain tries , I would assume semc gave this in exchange of hidden thing which probably making the probability of getting the skin lower , or they studied it and figured that saying 50 tries guaranteed going to make people prepare themselves for the 50 tries not like an infinity of tries like before .


I’m not surprised, and tbh I’m not at all disappointed or angry at SEMC. That’s gambling, and that’s exactly how it’s meant to work. On the other hand, even if you don’t get the Taka skin in 25 pulls, you probably will get at least one other good skin (or minimum a blueprint). I opened 2 of those chests last patch (all from free ICE I wouldn’t spend money on it), and got the festive Gwen skin, a Legendary Catherine blueprint (I forget the name of the skin, it used to be called paragon Catherine, don’t know if it still is), and the Dynasties Blackfeather blueprint. From 2 chests. (I also got snow bunny Gwen and a Redemption Ardan Blueprint in a Gold chest that patch, I did get hella lucky). So I’d say if you wan’t that specific skin, wait until it’s available for ICE. otherwise, the chest is probably still quite a good deal.

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I knew it’s a rip off big time (as the whole current monetization system in vainglory), but didn’t put the effort to calculate it. Thanks for that!

Currently with the, I believe and feel, smallest player base ever in this game - they try to keep going and return money for the investors via super small amount of rich whales.

Yes, this should be law banned as it’s literally exploiting people mind, developing gambling habits in kids and even adults, just for the sake of undeserved amount of money for the work put in that will go not to the devs, but the management.

Not to talk about AAA games with 40-80$ price tags that all have lootboxes and purchases of things that should be free (like a f dot for crosshair in shooter - the ffff). Everything is already out of control and this should be chased aggressively.

Currently gambling is responsible for a lot more money in the industry than everything, even AAA games makes more profit from that vs the straight up price. It’s normal that game companies will never let go by themself and should be forced. This is not 1990 where devs wanted to create great games and make a living from that, today it’s all how to get the 12 million $ bonus for exploiting peoples mind to make profit.

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Yah, I agree – that’s exactly the problem with this monetization scheme: it’s DESIGNED to take advantage of people’s lack of understanding of probability. That’s why it’s so objectionable to me – that, and because so many gamers are kids, and these companies KNOW that and are intentionally preying on them.

It’s disgusting, and I agree that a ban on these sorts of schemes needs to happen.


Exactly what gambling exploits - you feel how it’s fair, because you got super lucky while 100 other people didn’t get anything. Right now you make it look as a good deal, maybe someone will read you post and think how he will also got those things he don’t own and spend 60$ on duplicates. :wink:

I am sure the lottery 5 millions winner thinks how good the lotto is, but can we say that for the 5 million other people playing for their entire life winning nothing?

This will get complicated, enough was said in the recent years. If you feel gambling in games is ok - ok, play, gamble, “win” etc, I am not ok with gambling in games. I am not ok with 40$ for a f skin, then another 40$ for recolor of existing skin, 2$ for a red DOT in 60$ game, I am not ok with “bad lick prevention” instead of 40% chance to unlock, I am not ok with lootboxes instead of straight buy, I am not ok with any of this sh*t currently filling almost every game out there - no matter if ftp or paid.

This was my first chest lol


Luckyyyy i’m on my 13 pull and haven’t got anything… I did get a Leg skin but ii already have it.

Also i stopped at 13 since it took me 13 pulls to get the ice themed Celeste skin last patch lel.

I did the Rainbow Glaive chest. I had enough ICE saved up from various free sources that I figured it wouldn’t hurt to do it. Looking back, I don’t know why I bothered. I have so many skins that I’m just collecting essence at this point (up to 103k right now), and using ICE is just going to make it that much harder to get rid of.

all the chest unless the guaranteed chest at 50th/100th have 98% (or 99%) chance to fail.

so this is a bad deal… your chance is very slim. yes… other people may got lucky but you almost guaranteed to fail

That’s absolutely false. Read the first post if you want to understand how to calculate the correct probabilities for multiple draws.

Im missing about 13 skins unlockable with blueprints since the non dupe droprate feels like 1:20 i feel like i have an infinite essence loop before i get to craft anything. The rest of the missing skins i need are opals and most of them are skaarf sparkler chromas.

Didn’t you also spend a ton of ice for the Gwen skin chest which worked exactly like these ones, tho?

Are you replying to me? If so, the answer is yes – I knew they were a bad deal going in, and I did end up having to spend a bunch of ICE for them. Trust me, it’s not the first time I didn’t take my own advice – I make plenty of bad decisions on a regular basis. :gwenrainbowbarf:


I play a few of gacha games so sometimes i decide to test my luck in VG at times, a lot of the times it pays off funnily.

I see… you like Gwen, semc pulled an rng chest with Gwen skins, you went for it expecting to get lucky on your first pulls (since you already had the ice) and ended up going for the 50th pull just to get the skin.
Classic. Semc’s despicable and predatory monetization attempts back at it again.

God, how I despise what they have resorted to with in the last 2 years or so. I’m glad I stopped supporting such a company a while ago.

Thanks for sharing this as it helps more people realize how dirty and abusive are those rng things. Perhaps it will allow people to make better decisions regarding this issue and maybe… Just maybe semc could stop the bullshit.