So I opened my lvl 35 chest a couple days ago. And then there was a chest in the market, the skaarf chest. I tried 2 times but no luck. I ran out of ice but luckily a quest chest came in and got 8 more ice. I closed my eyes as I pressed 44 ice and I got rainbow white skaarf. Guild mates told me they tried 20 times but still no luck. Lucky or Not, it’s a 2% chance.Have you guys got any luck on the chest in the market?
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No money for chests… I’m trying to save up so I might be able to buy the Battle Pass one day. Progress is going good though with almost 300 from leveling up, sunlight, and events. 
You’re crazy lucky to get that skin. I wouldn’t want to risk the RNG. #remembertheticketdisaster
#ticketgang hhehehehehehehehehehehe
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2% is one (1) out of fifty (50) tries.
At that rate, you may as well play Roulette. Better chances, and you win back 36 times your bet, if you do. You can then proceed to buy the silly pretend-dragon-skin with your newly acquired riches.
Like, really… 'got way angry again when I saw that. And after all the things SEMC did right, lately, to get people to play again, I so didn’t want to.
Not correct. That’s the Gambler’s Fallacy. In fact, your chances are 2% each time you draw from the chest, so the probability of drawing the desired loot (cute kitty Skaarf) is actually much lower than it seems.
The formula to calculate your drop chance ( x ) over any given number of runs ( y ) is this:
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
So, for a 2% chance of getting Skaarf per draw, after 50 draws, you still only have a 63.58303% chance of getting him.
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I knew that… and somehow still ended up phrasing it incorrectly, because it looked convenient.
Thanks a bunch for pointing it out. 'just goes to show how screwed up this whole scheme really is.
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Exactly. It’s really horrific, if you look at the real math behind what they’re doing. (And tbf, it’s not just SEMC doing it – the whole loot box system in games is gambling, pure and simple. And anyone running a gambling operation that’s not stacked in favor of the house is doing it wrong.)
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at least SEMC always inform the probability to get the rewards, its much better than some RNG boxes in other game
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I made a thread about me getting ice from the event about 30 ice , added to my collected ice = 255 , so i decided to open the skaarf chest for a blue print and i got the rainbow skaarf skin , but i didnt notice the 2% , was it 2% or 5% , no idea !
but some “not famous” games have a loot box without informing the probability… You know that this “loot box” can be in different name, such as gachas, roulette, etc, you can find it easily in action rpg, strategical rpg, and others
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Semc used to have Glory boxes that you could empty out and actually see what was in. I wish they’d return to that system.
80 draws in one box with 1 real prize at the top and golden chests and BP chests around it with some other skins too. Throw in some ice and opals and people can still spend a fortune but they will be able to calculate their odds.
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I got it as well, but I spent a fair bit on ice. I think it took me about 25 tries. It definitely felt like gambling. I was happy with all the stuff a got. I got a handful of skins and some great blueprints along with about 400 opals and 5000 essence. I also got kinetic.
why would anyone ever want anything aside from the gold sparkle skaarf ?
pfft
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